Otkrivamo šta se krije iza masovnih smena Putinovih najbližih saradnika, i da li nam oni govore o nečem velikom što se bliži..

Vladmir Putin sad želi oko sebe ljude koji izvršavaju njegove naredbe i doživljavaju ga velikim vođom, a ne one koji bi s njim vladali i pamte ga iz vremena kad to nije bio, rekao je jedan analitičar ruskih prilika ukratko pokušavajući predstaviti smene koje se proteklih dana događaju u Kremlju.
putin medvedev lavrov sojgu02Zadnji u tom lancu koji su morali otići je Sergej Ivanov, šef predsedničkog osoblja i bivši ministar obrane, koji je jedno vreme slovio i kao osoba koja bi ga mogla naslediti.

Ivanov odlazi na poziciju izaslanika za ekologiju i transport, a za utehu mu ostaje mesto u uticajnom ruskom Savetu bezbednosti.

Nema dvoumljenja kako je reč o političkom padu tog bivšeg pripadnika KGB, Putinovog vršnjaka i poznanika još iz srednje škole u Sankt Peterburgu.

Nasledio ga je Anton Vajno, unuk bivšeg šefa estonske Komunističke partije, profesionalni diplomata, potpuno mu odan, što bi trebalo potvrditi i fotografije koje su se pojavile na društvenim mrežama, na kojima mladi Vajno, koji je u Kremlju prošao razne dužnosti, od odnosa s javnošću do Ivanovljevog zamenika, s velikim strahopoštovanjem drži kišobran ruskom predsedniku.

Nastavak je to prakse iz poslednjih meseci, tokom kojih Putin smenjuje prijatelje i dugogodišnje poznanike koji su otprilike istog godišta kao on, a na njihova mesta imenuje mlađe osobe od kojih su mnogi njegovi bivši telohranitelji ili su radili kao obaveštajci.

Tako su se novinari nemalo iznenadili kad je prošlog meseca za guvernera Kaljingradske oblast imenovan Jevgenij Ziničev jer su ga našli na ranijim slikama kao predsednikovog telohranitelja. Još jedan telohranitelj, Viktor Zolotov, doživio je meteorski uspon.

Putin ga je najprije pretvorio u generala i potom imenovao čelnikom novoosnovane Nacionalne garde. Novi čelnik carine, Vladimir Bulavin, došao je na to mesto s pozicije zamenika šefa FSB, ruske obaveštajne službe, bivšeg KGB, u kojem su i Putin i Ivanov imali karijeru pre nego što su došli u Kremlj.

Putin kao obaveštajac u Istočnoj Nemačkoj, a Ivanov, koji je diplomirao na Filološkom fakultetu (govori engleski i švedski), na nešto višoj funkciji u ambasadi u Helsinkiju. Kad su ga na razvalinama Jeljcinove vladavine doveli u Kremlj, Putin je odmah posegnuo za Ivanovim.

Sve je između njih bilo u redu do 2008., kad je Ivanov prerano slavio svoje moguće unapređenje u neformalnog Putinovog naslednika kad je potonji morao preći na premijersku funkciju.

Putina je to povredilo te se navodno zbog toga opredelio za Dmitrija Medvedeva, koji mu je mirno i bez pogovora prepuštao funkcije kad je to bilo potrebno zbog ustavnih pravila.

Sad je Ivanov, inače šef veterana KGB, organizacije uz koju je Putin jako vezan, definitivno ispao iz kruga onih koji svoju moć crpe iz činjenice da su u blizini ruskog predsednika. Ali Ivanov je ipak dobio častan otpust. Putin se s njim slikao na televiziji, zahvalio mu se na saradnji, a Ivanov je rekao kako je ostao čak osam meseci duže nego što su se ranije bili dogovorili.

Neki drugi saradnici ruskog predsednika, koji nisu bespogovorno prihvatili silazak s piramide moći, nisu prošli bez vidljivih ogrebotina.

 

putin

Tako je prošle godine naprasno smenio svog saveznika iz Sankt Peterburga Vladimira Jakunjina sa mesta šefa ruskih železnica jer je odbio prihvatiti nešto nižu funkciju.

Nedugo potom otišao je još jedan njegov prijatelj, šef carina Andrej Beljaninov. U njegov dom upali su agenti FSB i navodno mu pronašli stotine hiljada dolara u gotovini u kutijama.

Nakon toga je morao podneti ostavku. Još nekoliko čelnika istražnih poverenstava bilo je izvrgnuto javnoj sramoti pod optužbama za mito i korupciju. Jedan od njih bio je i Aleksander Bastrikin, Putinov kolega iz studentskih dana.
Sve do prošle godine ruski predsednik nije rabio takve metode kako bi se rešio preduzetnika.

Mito i korupcija bili su, a i sad su, rašireni u Rusiji, međutim, zbog toga se nije završavalo u medijima ili zatvoru.
Takav vid obračuna je, među ostalim, bio namenjen samo Putinovim formalnim političkim protivnicima. Sad je očito krenuo i prema svom krugu.

Zbog toga u Kremlju i oko njega vlada priličan strah jer se ne zna ko bi mogao biti sledeća meta.

Čini se kako je razlog za tu promenu odnosa prema saradnicima u ekonomskom stanju zemlje. Rusija je nakon aneksije Krima pod zapadnim sankcijama.

Iako zbog njih ruska ekonomija nije pala, široki slojevi naroda osećaju te posledice u srozavanju standarda.
Tu zemlju je, međutim, još teže pogodio pad cena nafte i gasa. Prihodi od tih energenata čine blizu dve trećine budžeta.

Zbog svega toga zadnjih godina zemlja je u recesiji, nije retkost da delu državnih službenika, prvo je na udaru bilo školstvo, kasne plate, ponegde kao na Krimu, dugo se čeka na penzije, zemlja je u recesiji, ruska srednja klasa koja je slavila Putina jer je uveo red u zemlju i stabilizirao rublju, sada je već prilično nezadovoljna.

Ne želi povratak natrag u vreme kada se u redovima čekalo na robu u radnjama i kada su plate zbog inflacije postajale sve bezvrednije.

Iako zbog ratnih uspeha u Siriji te aneksije Krima, koju većina Rusa odobrava, Putin i dalje ima nespornu podršku naroda, kroz ove akcije u kojima njegovi agenti FSB prokazuju koruptivne elemente u društvu, želi se pokazati i kao onaj koji se brine o funkcionisanju državnih tela.

U zadnje vreme dopušta se i dosta kritika u javnosti na račun premijera Dmitrija Medvedeva zbog nedovoljne angažovanosti u rešavanju ekonomske krize, što je znak kako Putin primarno želi zaštititi svoju poziciju nedodirljivog šefa države koji Rusiju postupno vraća na staze “stare slave” kakve je nekad imao Sovjetski Savez.

Ali gledajući upravo sudbinu te imperije, ruski predsednik želi izbeći jednu grešku iz tog razdoblja. Svima je u sećanju rusko vođstvo iz osamdesetih godina prošlog veka sa oronulim Vladimirom Brežnjevim i drugim čelnicima u sličnom stanju od Černjenka do Andropova.

Ima analitičara koji tvrde kako je to jedan od glavnih razloga pada tog komunističkog carstva jer je ta ekipa htela zadržati sve kako je nekada bilo, i na kraju ih je vreme pregazilo, a potom i politički suparnici.

Kako se to ponovo ne bi dogodilo, jer već sedamnaestu godinu vlada s istim društvom svojih preduzetnika i prijatelja iz Sankt Petersburga, Putin se, kako objašnjavaju neki analitičari, postupno rešava svoje stare garde i zbog tog razloga. Okružuje se mlađim ljudima, koji bespogovorno veruju u njega, i neretko im je to jedini potreban kvalitet.

Kadrovska baza iz koje crpi svoje nove ljude uglavnom je njegova telohraniteljska garda i grupa odanih agenata FSB.

Putin naginje onima koji mu služe, a distancira se od onih koji bi vladali uz njega, govore oni koji sve to vide iz drukčijeg ugla.

Drže da je s godinama neograničene moći porasla njegova sklonost diktatorskom načinu vladanja. Loše stanje ekonomije navelo ga je da traži krivce u pojedincima koje onda javno žrtvuje, pa makar to bili i njegovi prijatelji iz mladosti, umesto da se sprovode nužne reforme koje bi rusko društvo u celini stavile na zdravije temelje.

Ali, to ne želi jer bi time doveo u pitanje i svoju moć. Kao što u vezi s političkim strankama u zemlji postoji privid demokratije (taj sistem zovu “kontrolisanom demokratijom”) jer su i vladajuća i opoziciona stranka zapravo Putinove, tako i u vezi s gekonomijom Rusija za vreme njegove vladavine, s ozbirom da zavisi od izvoza sirovina, nije uspela preći onu crtu koja bi je pretvorila u razvijenu zemlju.

Navodno bi sljedeća 2017. mogla biti vrlo teška jer su se prilično iscrpile postojeće rezerve, dakako, ako se u međuvremenu drastično ne podignu cijene nafte i plina, a to zasad nije na vidiku.

Zbog toga se neki boje da bi Putin, kojeg inače krasi nepredvidivost, mogao preduzeti još koji rat kako bi prebacio pažnju s problema u zemlji i zaštitio svoju poziciju.

Za to uvek može poslužiti Ukrajina, ali zatezanje odnosa sa baltičkim zemljama. Nedavno je objavljeno kako će u Kaljingradskoj oblasti instalirati svoje rakete iskander sa projektilima koji će nositi nuklearne glave, kao odgovor na postavljanje američkog protivraketnog štita u Poljskoj i Rumuniji.

Sve to izaziva zebnju posebno kod ruskih komšija u srednjoj Evropi.

Ali, neki govore da bi se mogle dogoditi promene i u samoj Rusiji. Putin bi mogao postati osorniji prema onima koji ga ne doživljavaju kao neprikosnovenog lidera. Do pre godinu dana nije javno sramotio svoje nekadašnje saradnike, a sada se ne ustručava da to radi. Pred njim je i nekoliko izbornih izazova.

U septembru ove godine održavaju se parlamentarni izbori. Pa iako je rezultat izvestan, opet će pobediti njegova stranka ‘Ujedinjena Rusija’, ipak mu neće biti svejedno kako će sve to skupa proteći jer u zemlji dosta jačaju komunisti, a nakon zadnjih izbora bili su i protesti zbog vidljivog nameštanja rezultata.

Za dve godine čekaju ga i novi predsednički izbori. I njihov ishod je poznat. Putin će dobiti još četiri godine i moći će da vlada do 2022.

Kraj svoje vladavine po svemu sudeći dočekaće sa potpuno novom ekipom. Od društva iz Sanktt Peterburga ostaće će tek retki. Sergej Ivanov gotovo sigurno neće biti među njima.

(Express.hr)

  • Vladimir

    Tipično proameričko laprdanje,šta bi hteli da seronje koji su godinama parazitirali na ruskom društvu ostavi da se debljaju,dato im je dovoljno vremena da urade nešto za zemlju a oni,kraduckaju i trpaju u inostrane banke i decu školuju u inosrtranstvu.A kad to više ne može onda nastaje dreka protiv Putina.Ako iko sprema rat onda to nije Putin a njemu se pripisuje ta glupost jer je napad najbolja odbrana.Što se tiče vladanja dobro bi bilo da g. Putin drži vlast još sto godina jer ovom podlom svetu jedino ovaj čovek može stati na crtu!

    • MEĐ’JAVOM I ME…đama vukova m

      to što nazivaš laprdanjem je plod izuzetno opasne vestfašističke škole, koja ciljano kreira priču sa jasnim namjerama i ciljevima! ne vidim da se je ikoji faktor, ikoja meta do sada efikasno branila! na ofanzivu, maksimalno što se učini, to je – da zašute i prepuste, u mlakom uvjerenju kako oni znaju istinu, ali, od toga – ništa!!!!

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  • DLM
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    • Beth Mesquita comentou em 11 de junho de 2010 às 11:37. …Tô esperando a tal pressão e o stress!!!!rsrsrsJúlia ontem fui em uma loja de perfumes importados. Então do nada, pensei, que perfume a Júlia Petit usa????Não sei se pode falar…mas fiquei curiosa e tentando imaginar o q combina contigo…

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    • Patients with major depressive disorder fared better than non-depressed counterparts on a decision-making task, one possible upside to lower mental health. Was this answer helpful?

    • Hey just wanted to give you a quick heads up and let you know a few of the pictures aren’t loading correctly. I’m not sure why but I think its a linking issue. I’ve tried it in two different web browsers and both show the same results.

    • I hate my life but at least this makes it bearable.

    • You wear dresses so well, no wonder you love them. And yes, I do love the color of the bicycle. And your sunglasses. I discovered WIWW through you last week, and oh man it is so fun! I linked my birthday outfit today. Also…my super-hott farmer husband keeps not getting my memos either. What’s up with that?

    • cracked leaf Picture by DanielJames A closeup of a tiny leaf used with a Sony DSC-T5. I am continually surprised at how able and fast this minor digital camera is. As soon as you realize its quirks, you can get some great benefits making use of it. -===- Purchase a Print. This image is also featured in the guide, Finding Place.

    • A bit surprised it seems to simple and yet useful.

    • Ønsker dere alle masse energi og stÃ¥-pÃ¥-humør til disse riggedagene. Med maaange messestands bak meg, vet jeg det blir hektisk. MÃ¥let er likevel alltid noe Ã¥ se frem til, og etter det jeg har sett og lest av forberedelser, er jeg overbevist om at dette blir en strÃ¥lende messe!Gleder meg stort til Ã¥ treffe sÃ¥ mange inspirerende mennesker samlet pÃ¥ ett sted.Lykke til!Glad hilsen fra,Anette Willemine

    • Eu achava um piloto médio,pior que muitos outros que correram na GP2 e não estão na F1.Porem os testes da pré-temporada me surpreenderam,acho que ele possa conseguir manter o bom ritmo da Toro Rosso e ser mais um jovem e bom piloto correndo pela equipe italiana.E o Kubica vai ter um grande concorrente no titulo de cara mais esquisito da F1…

    • Ik vind het van gedachten wisselen met mensen een stuk interessanter dan het stapelen van mening op mening. Als het laatste al niet dodelijk vermoeiend is, valt er door het uitwisselen van gedachten en actief te luisteren bovendien veel meer te leren. Groot gelijk dus, van Wagendorp, dat hij met zijn column stopt. Er moesten meer zijn, die dat doen.

    • Hi MarjaGibran’s words are like pain, as you need to let the worls seep through you and feel the bitterness with the positive, and accepting the outcomes, or your choices.Will give you a call this week.Take careBob

    • This forum needed shaking up and you’ve just done that. Great post!

  • Običan spin jer u suštini ne mogu da shvate suštinu kadrovskih promena u Rusiji. Suština je u vrlo kompleksnom mehanizmu refleksivnog upravljanja kako u Rusiji tako i sa „partnerima“ i partnerima.
    Onima koji nisu u priči teško je to razumeti ali je činjenica da se karte ređaju (kadrovi, …), otvaraju se nove opcije, stižu nove ideje, …
    Svima je promaklo da iznenadne vojne vežbe u modernim uslovima zahtevaju i vežbe na drugim nivoima organizacije društva a ovo je, pored ostalog, i to.
    Praktično su svi organi vlasti utrenirani da deluju u situacijama kompleksnog i promenljivog okruženja. Analitički centar RF je po svemu sudeći zaključio da je na određenim nivima upravljanja korisna promena ključnih kadrova i to ne zato što su loše radili (zamenjeni su i oni koji su odlično radili) već da bi se povećala žilavost sistema i oslobodili potencijali za inovacije. Rutiniranost u velikim sistemima isti čini ranjivim jer suparnici mogu tu karakteristiku da iskoriste kao slabost (a rutiniranost velikih sistema jeste slabost jer je to odlika smanjene sposobnosti adaptiranja na promene).
    Analitičkom centru RF svaka čast na primeni najnovijih dostignuća teorije velikih sistema.

    • That’s a smart way of loniokg at the world.

    • Here are some tips I picked up along the way that you may also find useful: “If you’re annoyed by wasting water while it gets ultra hot, try washing your face in a ground floor bathroom.  It doesn’t take as long to heat up, saving resources and money.”– from Simple Organic

    • Eric,I do own two dot co myself. Stump.co and bobo.co. The latter because I thought it sounded great. I felt the rhyme made it memorable. Stump.co was going to be an experiment for our stump removal division. But that’s all I’m going to buy

    • Nice. I have a feeling that the Wii U version of the table may come a little later than the other versions purely because the game was released so recently. Hope I am wrong though.

    • Rédigé par : Lunettes Rouges | le 03 janvier 2009 à 23:50Intéressant, Lunettes Rouges, votre intervention pour pimenter encore plus le débat; révélatrice en tout cas…Mais comme vous dites: « En cherchant bien, on trouve toujours quelque part un imbécile qui dit n’importe quoi et qui permet au critique de s’affirmer comme plus intelligent, plus juste, etc.. »Vous ne faites pas de la critique vous, par hasard ?

    • Flott tiltak! Og sÃ¥ stort at det er En som kjenner oss ved navn – Johannes Ã¥penbaring 3,5: «Den som seirer, skal bli kledd i hvitt, og jeg vil aldri stryke NAVNET hans ut av livets bok, men kjennes ved NAVNET hans for min Far og hans engler.»

    • Haha, shouldn’t you be charging for that kind of knowledge?!

    • Great post with lots of important stuff.

    • P. Assouline a résumé d’une phrase la substance de ce roman : « une grande famille de l’aristocratie anglaise, toute préoccupée du destin de ses enfants : celle que l’on s’apprête à marier, celui qui se prépare à être digne de son héritage, la petite rebelle qui fraie du côté des suffragettes, le dernier qui est déjà endetté comme une mule ». En gros, les soucis de l’héritière des vignobles Rothschild chez Mireille Dumas. Palpitant !

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    • Vad det bara jag som tyckte bärken var bäst i första halvleken? Tyckte han gjorde riktigt bra jobb pÃ¥ sin kant medans sella och adam var ute och cykla pÃ¥ andra kanten.

    • found there. Sure, one can make a case that when Jesus told His disciples to go to “all nations,” He really meant “all ethno-linguistic people groups.” But did Luke mean the

    • AnonymousTo start Suliman Abdulaziz Alrajhi has not entered the United States of America since the 90′s!! Which means that is all false acquisitions. Suliman Abdulaziz Alrajhi is a very well known business man in the Middle East. Except if you are talking about someone else that has a similar name please specify.

    • So I suppose your requirment for Kap is what? He’s been given a divsion lead. Is it OK to ask that he not blow that?No, sorry- in this case, Kap does have to take them farther than Smith did. You don’t make a change despite the record they have with Smith as QB and go: “well, juyt do yer best, Kappy, that’s all we ask”…

    • I didn't handle it well…even though he had three years of preschool prior. I was fine…until he looked back at me while the teacher herded them in like cattle. He walked with his head down looking at the sidewalk. He finished the year…but that was his last year of public school.

    • Here’s a thought. Off topic, but quite interesting I think. Scamp, which posts have been most commented on. I remember the Transport for London dancing bear got loads of attention, plus the release of the Bud ads from Fallon (‘oh my god, we are all dead’). What are the others?

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    • Once I initially commented I clicked the -Notify me when new feedback are added- checkbox and now every time a comment is added I get four emails with the same comment. Is there any way you may take away me from that service? Thanks!

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  • You need something to use as a filter. Put one filterpaper in it, however much coffee you want is next. Then boil some water on the stove. When it boils pour a small amount into your filter, get all the coffee wet. Let it drip down, then repeat the process until you have enough coffee in your cup. It is important to keep the water simmering.Hope you can find a good filter substitute that doesn’t melt. I keep a camping filter in the cupboard for when the electric is out.

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  • encore merci pour cet article, olivier, tres important d’éclairer le public sur le fonctionnement de la monnaie, qui est une des bases majeures de l’economie. tellement important. sinon, vous dites : “Tous ces circuits sont assez compliqués, mais ils ne visent qu’à pallier le fait qu’il n’y a pas qu’une seule banque, où il serait tellement simple de tout compenser – sans besoin de monnaie centrale…”Ben oui, je suis completement d’accord !!!

  • Bin auch grad beim Umziehen und kann deinen Stress vollstens nachvolziehen – man kommt zu nix! Hoffentlich sammelst du deine Ideen trotzdem, so dass der Blog bald wieder voll weitergeht. Ich freue mich schon auf neue, interessante Artikel von dir. Und nochmal ein Lob für das Katzengras hier unten, ich freue mich jedes Mal darüber

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  • What makes you think only "our enemies" are involved in the drug trade? The US has often found it convenient and expedient to ally with drug lords, your doubts notwithstanding. If there's actually any eradication going on it's not having much effect, as Afghanistan's share of the world opium supply shot up pretty dramatically after the US invasion, just like it did after the US invasion of Vietnam.

  • What I find so interesting is you could never find this anywhere else.

  • that at the beginning he didn’t really like to capoeira or want to train it. He told us that his father made him go, because he had to practice sport for his health, but I had never before heard this part of the story. I really like it! It’s funny to think that before he didn’t ginga, couldn’t ginga, and now he’s the one who makes us work the different types of ginga so hard! aaaah, capoeira é muito legal mesmo! saudades…

  • dit :Cool, ces photos sont très belles, c’est d’ailleurs mon prochain sujet de sortie photo “les coquelicots”.Merci pour le fond d’écran, il est installé ! Oooh, super, ça me fait vachement plaisir que ça vous plaise, sérieux.

  • Slam dunkin like Shaquille O’Neal, if he wrote informative articles.

  • Interessant en goed geschreven artikel, Wilco! Goed om te lezen dat jouw expertise, advies en positieve energie alsmaar worden geraadpleegd door menig branche-genoot en anderen. Well done, keep up the good work! :)

  • Feride Gül diyor ki:Bence çok eksik bir yazı olmuÅŸ. Hediye rehberi deyince en az 100 çeÅŸit ürün sıralanması lazımdı. Birde bunları nereden satın alacağımızı söylerseniz süper olur. Böyle çok yalın kaldı bu

  • (53)“Dus jij houdt je aan de Islam als het voor jou positief/productief uitwerkt”Nee, ik denk niet dat hij dat bedoelde. Sommige mensen gebruiken de Shahada en de tabir als politieke slogan. Ik heb dit zelf zien gebeuren. Niet alleen vind ik dit heiligheidsschennis, maar ook heeft dit een negatieve invloed op de beeldvorming van de Islam.

  • Hallo Ingrid,Sie müssen noch gar nichts tun, da der Vermieter bis Ende 2012 Zeit hat, die Nebenkostenabrechnung für das Jahr 2011 zu erstellen (bei Abrechnung nach Kalenderjahr).Viele GrüßeDennis Hundt

  • 'Ne alkavat sulaa' on oikein, koska siinähän on KAKSI eli enemmän kuin yksi toimijaa. En sotkisi fysiikkaa ja kieltä ihan noin pitkälle keskenään! =D Muutenhan kaikki olisi monikkoa tyyliin *minä kirjoitamme, koska onhan ihmisessä juurikin kaikenlaista ainetta, vettä, atomia ja solua, hih.Luin juuri Hesarista Z-jutusta (muistaakseni), kuulosti omituiselta!

  • comentou em 11 de fevereiro de 2010 às 17:21. Ainda não provei nada disso. Ainda prefiro um peeling suave de vez em quando. Tenho medo de ficar com o rosto paralizado e sem expressão. Acho que o Botox, quando feito errado ou antes do tempo, acaba deixando a mulher com cara de mais velha do que é.BJssss!!!!!

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